Argentina update: confirmed winds of change

On Sunday November 14, 2021, the Argentinean electorate went to the ballot for their legislative midterms. The country saw near complete repetition of the results after a dismissal primary election for the ruling government. The Peronists faced national defeat by losing the majority in the Senate for the first time since 1983. In the Province of Buenos Aires, the government managed to rally its support base by closing a 5% gap over the primaries in a technical tie. The following piece will look into the details of the election and will discuss future scenarios under a new legislative landscape.

The legislative midterms were held in a challenging environment of soaring inflation (over 50%), and the pandemic, both factors that contribute to lower support for the incumbents. The global pandemic has also resulted in lower participation rates in the latest elections across Latin America, mainly Peru and Mexico. This effect was seen in Argentina as well, as the participation rate for the elections were 71% above the 68% on the primaries but still well below the historical average of 75%.

Even though the November elections are less relevant in terms of overall policy, they took place after a primary election that resulted in a cabinet power grab by the more radical parts of the Peronist party. On the national scale, the government saw a major defeat from winning 19 provinces in the Presidential election of 2019 to just retaining nine over the weekend. However, while not a major feat, the government managed to reverse the results in the Province of Buenos Aires from a defeat of 5% in the primaries to a technical tie; the government achieved 38% of the vote while the opposition received 39%.