Elections Argentina: Don’t believe the polls
The general elections of October 22, 2023 brought surprises and changed the base scenario relative to what opinion polls were saying
- Incumbent coalition obtains a leading plurality in the presidential race (37%) and increases the probability of Peronism remaining in power.
- Sergio Massa and Javier Milei will face each other in a runoff in November. They will battle to cajole the voting blocs of eliminated candidates, whose split is currently unclear.
- The traditional center right coalition (Juntos por el Cambio) has lost the opportunity to obtain the presidency.The elections held on October 22, 2023 produced a surprisingly good result for Peronism as its candidate Sergio Massa obtained a leading plurality in the presidential race with roughly 37% of the vote. He will face libertarian candidate Javier Milei, who obtained 30% of the ballots (Graph 1), in a runoff to be held on November 19, 2023.